GoodFuels

UN Report Calls Lifecycle Analysis “Limited”

A new report finds that current methods of determining lifecycle analysis for biofuels are “limited” and “show a wide range of net greenhouse gas savings compared to fossil fuels.”

The report, by the United Nations Environment Programme’s (UNEP) International Panel for Sustainable Resource Management, appears to say what the ethanol industry in the U.S. has been saying - there is no consensus in the methodology used to determine lifecycle analysis. The bottom line repeated frequently in the report is that more research is needed and there are a number of unanswered questions that would impact any type of long range predictions based on indirect land use change.

For example, the report says, “So far no explicit projection of global land use change induced by changing food demand seems to be available.” If we can’t even predict how much land may be used for food production in the future, how can we predict how much will be diverted to biofuels? The report also says, “Estimates of land requirements for future biofuels vary widely and depend on the basic assumptions made — mainly the type of feedstock, geographical location, and level of input and yield increase.”

You know what they say happens when you ass/u/me. That is the basic problem with all of these attempts at analysis. They are based on assumptions that will likely never be exact. We can never know what will happen in the future until it becomes the present. But, we still have to keep moving forward or we will never make it there.