CNN “State of the Union” host and chief national correspondent John King took a refreshingly in-depth and positive look at the state of the ethanol industry in Nebraska over the weekend.
According to CNN, King “goes outside the Beltway to report on issues affecting communities across the country” and his report about ethanol in the Cornhusker State took him from the combine on a farm in Fort Calhoun, to the Advanced BioEnergy ethanol plant in Fairmont, where he stood on a mound of dried distillers grains with ABE Plant Manager Grant Johanson.
The headline for the story was especially gratifying - “Ethanol keeps Nebraska running in tough financial times.” Here’s a nice quote from the article:
In Washington, ethanol is a source of controversy, with many lawmakers arguing it is an industry unfairly propped up by generous federal subsidies. To Nebraska, however, it is the direct source of roughly 1,000 jobs at ethanol production plants across the state, many of them located in small towns where those 40 to 50 plant jobs are the local gold standard.
Pretty positive piece overall for the corn ethanol industry. Read the whole article here.
BYO Ethanol was on the trade show floor at the NACS Show this week in Las Vegas.
The ethanol blender pump program was introduced as partnership between the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA), the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) and the American Coalition of Ethanol (ACE) at the 22nd Ethanol Conference & Trade Show in August. Missy Ruff (pictured), RFA’s Market Development Manager, was one of several BYOEthanol representatives at the NACS booth this week telling retailers about the advantages of blender pumps. This annual convention of the Association for Convenience and Petroleum Retailing draws some 10,000 visitors and is the premier event to reach the primary marketers of fuel - convenience store owners.
This edition of “The Ethanol Report” features interviews by Domestic Fuel reporter Joanna Schroeder with Robert White of RFA and Ron Lamberty of ACE about the program, blender pumps in general, and feedback from retailers.
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A new report finds that current methods of determining lifecycle analysis for biofuels are “limited” and “show a wide range of net greenhouse gas savings compared to fossil fuels.”
The report, by the United Nations Environment Programme’s (UNEP) International Panel for Sustainable Resource Management, appears to say what the ethanol industry in the U.S. has been saying - there is no consensus in the methodology used to determine lifecycle analysis. The bottom line repeated frequently in the report is that more research is needed and there are a number of unanswered questions that would impact any type of long range predictions based on indirect land use change.
For example, the report says, “So far no explicit projection of global land use change induced by changing food demand seems to be available.” If we can’t even predict how much land may be used for food production in the future, how can we predict how much will be diverted to biofuels? The report also says, “Estimates of land requirements for future biofuels vary widely and depend on the basic assumptions made — mainly the type of feedstock, geographical location, and level of input and yield increase.”
You know what they say happens when you ass/u/me. That is the basic problem with all of these attempts at analysis. They are based on assumptions that will likely never be exact. We can never know what will happen in the future until it becomes the present. But, we still have to keep moving forward or we will never make it there.
Regulatory agencies and environmental groups should be considering the indirect land use impacts of ALL fuels, not just biofuels, when they look at lifecycle analysis of greenhouse gas emissions.
That is the message that Geoff Cooper with the Renewable Fuels Association took to the annual meeting of the Society of Environmental Journalists in Madison, Wisconsin last weekend.
“Every energy decision we make has indirect effects associated with those decisions and we’re not looking at any of those other fuels and their indirect impacts,” Cooper says. “If we’re going to look at indirect effects for biofuels, we need to look at indirect effects for every energy source and we need to be fair.”
Cooper says the environmental journalists he addressed seemed to be surprised that only biofuels were being subjected to indirect effects and he was happy to share some of the new studies that analyze the carbon footprint of such practices as petroleum production from the Canadian tar sands. “Most previous reports excluded emissions from land use change and exploration and development of the natural gas used in the tar sands process.”
This edition of “The Ethanol Report” features an interview with Geoff about these topics and others related to ethanol and the environment.
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The Wall Street Journal is calling it “Christmas in October for Ethanol” and the forecast does seem to indicate a cheery holiday season for the industry.
Ethanol producers have been seeing some pretty good profit margins lately, especially compared to last year at this time. Last week, ethanol processing margins nearly doubled to a dollar a bushel. Since early July, ethanol futures on the Chicago Board of Trade have increased more than 20%, while corn futures have only gone up about five percent.
Commodity analyst Joe Victor of Allendale, Inc says that profitability has returned to the ethanol industry. “We know that over the past three months that there is profit returning, above and beyond all costs. Ethanol companies are turning a profit over the past three months.”
Proof of that is more ethanol plants returning to production. Ethanol Producer Magazine reports that the number of plants idled has decreased from 36 in the spring to 24 this fall. The publication’s latest plant map shows total U.S. ethanol production capacity is nearly 12 billion gallons.
This is all great news, but what producers are really hoping for is a nice early Christmas present from the Environmental Protection Agency, which is due to rule on the industry request allowing gasoline blends to contain up to 15 percent ethanol by December 1. That would make for a very Merry Christmas in Ethanol Land.