The National Corn Growers Association hosted a conference last week in St. Louis on “Land Use and Carbon Impacts of Corn-based Ethanol” to highlight the problems associated with trying to measure indirect land use change using models based on subjective assumptions and unproven science.
NCGA CEO Rick Tolman says the main problem is vague direction that was put in the 2007 energy bill’s Renewable Fuels Standard. “We had some arcane language put in there that said we’ll take a look at indirect land change and its implications as an unintended consequence,” Tolman said. “What we think is there’s an unintended consequence of the unintended consequence, which may be that we may in fact start using more imported oil because of this language we have regulation that exceeds our ability to measure.”
Geoff Cooper with the Renewable Fuels Association moderated the first panel at the conference which focused on the modeling used to determine land use change and how difficult this can be. “It’s a new area of study and certainly new to a regulatory framework,” Cooper said. “Using these models for these purposes involves lots of subjective decisions and judgement calls and when you put that in the context of a regulation, that’s problematic.”
This edition of “The Ethanol Report” features comments from Tolman and Cooper, as well as NCGA Director of Biofuels & Business Development Jamey Cline and North Dakota grower Bart Schott.
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Making ethanol from algae is getting some national media attention lately, with one story making it an industry controversy and another already denigrating a process that is still in the research stage.
The NYT Greenwire blog headline reads “Ethanol Producers Warily Eye Algae’s Bloom” and has ethanol producers “being a little defensive” over the idea that fuel can be made from pond scum. CNN calls it “Green Goo Biofuel” and happily spreads the notion that algae fuel “still creates pollution when burned, like regular fuel.”
Both articles seem to confuse the use of algae to make biodiesel, which is relatively easy and is being done by several companies, or a next generation ethanol-type fuel - which companies such as Algenol Biofuels are working to perfect. Algenol has partnered with Dow Chemical, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), and Georgia Tech on technology that uses CO2, salt water, sunlight and non-arable land to produce ethanol.
Whether it will work commercially remains to be seen, but as Matt Hartwig with the Renewable Fuels Association points out in the NYT article, ethanol is paving the way for newer technologies and there’s plenty of room for everyone.
“We’re not talking about an industry left in dust, but rather evolving and becoming part of the solution,” Hartwig said. “We’re going to need it all. This isn’t a situation where we need to rob Peter to pay Paul. We should expand research and development for all technologies to really achieve our goals of energy security.”
The study that started all the outcry over ethanol and indirect land use change comes up lacking in the science department.
Two researchers from Sydney, Australia decided to do scholarly analysis of the study by Tim Searchinger et al. and found the science fell far short of acceptable scientific standards. This should actually come as no great surprise, since Searchinger is a lawyer/environmental activist, not a scientist.
In their analysis, Professor John Mathews and Dr. Hao Tan from Macquarie University in Sydney described Searchinger’s study as “more ideology than science and seeking to put biofuels in worst possible light.”
The Searchinger et al. paper is framed in extremely negative terms that depict all biofuel production taking place in the USA and all derived from corn. It calculates land use change effects through the indirect route of assuming that diversion of corn to ethanol in the USA creates a shortfall that has to be made up by farmers planting grain crops in the rest of the world – rather than assuming that farmers are taking decisions to grow biofuel crops around the world using crops adapted to their environment, such as sugarcane in Brazil. The study then deliberately ignores possible trade effects, such as a proportion of this ethanol spike being met by imports from countries such as Brazil. It even ignores the Congressional cap that was placed on US first-generation corn-based ethanol, which was levied at 15 billion gallons (i.e., half the spike used by Searchinger et al.).
“If you wished to put U.S. ethanol production in the worst possible light, assuming the worst possible set of production conditions guaranteed to give the worst possible set of indirect land use effects, then the assumptions would not be far from those actually presented in the Searchinger et al. paper,” commented Dr. Hao Tan. “Frankly, better science upon which to base rule-making is available today.”
All the things the corn and ethanol industries have been trying to point out. Interestingly, the analysis was actually published in BioFPR earlier this year and is just getting a belated, some are calling “mysterious,” PR boost. Regardless, it makes valid points about the assumptions used in the Searchinger model that need to be heard.
Merle Anderson is often called the “Father of Ethanol” because in 1977 he helped to start the American Coalition for Ethanol (ACE) . He even has an award named after him, which this year went to David Hallberg who formed the Renewable Fuels Association in 1981.
Looking back over the years, Merle thinks the ethanol industry has done well. “We’ve done some really good things,” he said in an interview at the 22nd annual Ethanol Conference and Trade Show. “I think we’ve helped farmers an awful lot. I think we’ve done what’s right for America. When you talk about the transfer of wealth, I think we’ve helped a little bit –could of and should have done more. And I always have an interest in supporting our troops.”
Anderson says ethanol could do more to lessen our dependence on foreign oil if the auto industry would “stand up and admit that their vehicles will operate successfully on higher blends.”
“We’ve been successful in creating production,” he said. “We haven’t worried enough about selling the product, and we have got to solve this if the industry is going to move forward.” Anderson helped to get some of the first blender pumps installed in Minnesota and he knows that “higher blends is the answer to our problems.”
Listen to an interview with Merle Anderson by Domestic Fuel reporter Joanna Schroeder here:
The National Corn Growers Association is taking on the issue of indirect land use at a conference in St. Louis on August 25-26.
NCGA’s Corn Ethanol Land Use Conference will include sessions on a number of topics, including land use change, nitrous oxide, new technologies and their effect on greenhouse gas emissions, domestic and international yields, satellite data and land conversion greenhouse gas emission factors, defining renewable biomass, and distillers grains.
NCGA first vice president Darrin Ihnen says the conference is timely and important. “We want to make sure that EPA and CARB and others are using sound science to develop their models, and today we don’t think they’re doing that,” said Ihnen. “They’re using people that don’t necessarily have the expertise that are just writing comments that are kind of what I call out there that aren’t factual so we want to bring them back in line with what the science says and what can be proven instead of using methodology and go about it that way.”
Listen to an interview with Darrin Ihnen by Domestic Fuel reporter Joanna Schroeder here:
Registration for the event at the Renaissance St. Louis Hotel-Airport is still available online at NCGA’s website. The cost is $250 per person.